Tag:St. John's
Posted on: February 28, 2012 2:28 pm
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Bracket steady at the top

Today's bracket and bubble watch are posted.  The top three seeds are still the same, although some shuffling among regions has occurred.

One of the biggest myths of bracketing is that the committee "snakes" the field, but that isn't true.  No effort is made to match the overall No. 1 with the worst of the two seeds, or the 16 seeds or the 8s or any seed.  Geography plays a big role in where teams get placed.  There is some effort at balance among the top four seeds in each region, and in the bracket overall, but that's it.

Geography plays a much bigger role in bracketing than most people realize.  That's because the feedback the NCAA gets from schools and coaches is that they would rather be in a tougher region close to home than travel far for an easier draw.

So, no Kansas is not the lowest No. 2 seed just because it is paired with overall No. 1 Kentucky.

Texas and Arizona are out of the bracket, replaced by UCF and Miami.  Miami actually picked up a big win over the weekend against Florida State.  The other teams didn't lose, but got shuffled after re-evaulation.

Iowa State was the biggest mover up the bracket after filling a big hole in its resume with a win at Kansas State.  It was only the Cyclones fourth top 100 win, but their first away from home.

Wisconsin moved up a couple spots as well after winning at Ohio StateNotre Dame had its nine-game winning streak broken at St. John's, then lost again to Georgetown last night.

Conference tournaments are underway, which has those teams near the bottom of the bracket sweating out potential bid-stealers.  If Murray State were to go down in the OVC tournament, somebody's bubble would burst as Murray is clearly at-large quality.

The same would happen if a team other than Creighton or Wichita State wins the Missouri Valley.

It's a little dicier after that.  Harvard might be an at-large if it somehow loses the Ivy League.  The Ivy does not have a tournament, so the Crimson would have to lose in the regular season.  They are currently tied with Penn in the loss column.  If the two teams finish tied, the Ivy would have a one-game, neutral court playoff.

Teams like Long Beach, Oral Roberts, Drexel and Iona have slim at-large hopes should they lose their conference tournaments as well.

I will update the bracket and bubble watch pages daily from now on, as events dictate.

Posted on: February 26, 2012 9:48 am
Edited on: February 26, 2012 12:17 pm
 

Bracket notes; Purdue, ISU get big wins

Purdue and Iowa State picked up huge, resume building wins on Saturday in what was a very busy day.

The Boilermakers got their biggest win of the season at Michigan.  The win for Purdue is just its second over a team that is sure to make the tournament.  It was Michigan's first loss at home all season.

Iowa State picked up its first away-from-home win of any significance when it completed the season sweep of Kansas State.  The Cyclones now have four top 100 RPI wins (despite a gaudy 11-5 conference record), and should be safe if they can get one more.  Teams with just four top 100 wins have received 13 at-large bids in the last 18 years, but that's out of 250 teams.

It was a tough day to be a conference leader.  Temple, Harvard, New Mexico, Long Island, and Middle Tennessee all lost.  Duke, Syracuse, Kansas, Belmont, Drexel, Murray State, Oral Roberts, Nevada and St. Mary's all were pushed to the brink.

Alabama put another nail into Mississippi State's coffin with a win in Tuscaloosa.  The Bulldogs have lost five straight and travel to South Carolina next.  They are only 2-6 on the road.

Northwestern kept its hopes alive with a one-point win at Penn State.  The Wildcats don't have many good wins (just six top 100), but none of their 11 losses have come to non-contenders.  They have a chance to make a statement next when Ohio State visits.

Saint Louis took its worst loss of the season at Rhode Island on Saturday.  For a team with few good wins, that's not a good sign.  Also in the A-10,  Saint Joseph's played their way back onto the bubble with a win over Temple.

Notre Dame lost at St. John's, which is the fourth bad loss of the season for the Irish.  It's also the first loss of any kind since January 16th.

Kansas clinched at least a tie for the Big 12 title with an overtime win over Missouri.  The Jayhawks are continuing their push for a No. 1 seed.

St. Mary's won the West Coast title outright, ending an 11-year streak during which Gonzaga either won or shared the regular season title.

Mostly irrelevant fact of the day: The Ivy League has half its teams in the top 100 of the RPI.  Conference USA, the Colonial, Missouri Valley, Pac-12 and West Coast conferences can't say that.

The bubble watch will be updated this morning.


Posted on: February 1, 2012 1:18 pm
 

Feb. 1 bracket

It's February, the home stretch of the season, and today's bracket features a lot of teams going in the wrong direction.

West Virginia lost three times since the last bracket was posted, and fell six spots this week.  The Mountaineers lost at St. John's and at home to suddenly resurgent Pittsburgh, sandwiched around that controversial loss at Syracuse.

Seton Hall is also fading fast.  The Hall got off to a great start this season, but now has lost five in a row.  To make matters worse, the opponents that mark their best wins - UConn, West Virginia and Dayton - are also struggling.

The Huskies have lost three i row and five of their last seven.  The addition of Ryan Boatright should help, once he works his way into form.

It's not all bad news for the Big East, along with Pitt, Notre Dame is coming on and has crawled onto the bracket in the PIGs.  The Irish have very little margin for error though.  Despite a nice collection of wins (Syracuse at home, and at Louisville, UConn and Seton Hall), they are only 7-8 vs the top 200 teams in the RPI, and that's a very negative indicator for tournament selection.

Northwestern is stll hanging on by a thread after a loss to Purdue at home this week (a much needed win for the Boilers, by the way).  The best thing working for the Cats is that Purdue is the lowest rated team to beat them this year, and they have a couple good wins, although one of them -- Seton Hall -- looks worse every day.

Honestly, the fact that Notre Dame and Northwestern, along with Colorado State and Oklahoma, which round out the First Four, are in a bracket is reason enough to go back to the 64-team field.

Florida made the biggest move up this week by filling in a couple of holes in their tournament profile.  Their sweep of the Mississippi schools, including a win at Ole Miss, gave them two more top 50 RPI wins (three total now) and their first win of any consequence away from home.

Dropping off the bracket this week were BYU, Texas, Marshall, UCF and NC State.  Coming on were Notre Dame, Colorado State, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Saint Louis.  All ten belong in the NIT.

Dayton almost fell off too after losing twice this week, including a real head-scratcher at home to RPI No. 263 Rhode Island.

Michigan State lost more than a game to Illinois last night.  The Spartans' heart and soul, Draymond Green, limped off the floor late with an apparent knee injury.  If that is serious and causes him to miss significant time, that will be a big blow to Michigan State's chances of a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

The highest rated team in the RPI not in my bracket is No. 47 Arkansas.  The Hogs are the ultimate Home Court Hero, with a 16-1 home record.  The Hogs are 16-0 in Fayetteville, and lost to Houston in Little Rock, which the NCAA considers a home game.  They are the only team in college basketball with at least a .500 record that has yet to win off its home floor.

The next bracket will be posted on Tuesday as we move to a twice-a-week schedule.
Posted on: January 25, 2012 10:54 am
Edited on: January 25, 2012 3:26 pm
 

Jan. 25 Bracket

Today's bracket is posted.  Kentucky is the new overall top seed, followed by Missouri, which is the only newcomer to the top line, replacing Duke.

Syracuse and Baylor remain No. 1 seeds despite losses last week.  Kansas is pushing hard, and beat Baylor recently, but the Jayhawks have done most of their damage at home, and still have that extra loss - to Davidson.

Ohio State has also rejoined the fight, but is another team that has struggled away from home.  All three of the Buckeyes' losses have come on the road, to their three best opponents away from home.  They are mighty in Columbus, and the tournament is played there, but Ohio St will be shipped out.

The Big Ten still sports nine teams, but Purdue is hanging on for dear life.  The Boilers have struggled recently, losing at home to Wisconsin and just on Tueday, to Michigan.  They are the only Big Ten team still looking for a win over a ranked opponent.  If the field were more accomplished, Purdue would definitely be on the outside looking in.

Illinois also took a beating this week in the bracket.  The Illini fell from second to seventh after losing at Penn State and at home to Wisconsin.  They are a true six-seed that was moved to seven to help with bracketing considerations, but that is still a sizeable drop.  Also hurting them is that the loss to Purdue looks worse than it did last week.

Cincinnati, despite a 1-2 week, is getting closer to the bracket despite a non-conference schedule rankng 329th out of 344.  That's going to be an albatross around the Bearcats' neck all season long.  The committee, even in an expanded field, still takes a very dim view of that and will eliminate teams for no other reason.

Cinci is also a strange team in that it is better on the road than at home.  The Bearcats are 6-2 in games away from home, but only 9-4 on their home floor, including losses to St. John's and Presbyterian.  That 92 RPI ranking is due to their weak non-conference schedule and their difficulty defending the home floor.

Cincinnati has nothing on Loyola Marymount though.  The Lions are 7-2 on the road, but only 3-6 at home.

And from the Teams Get Bids, Not Conferences departement: Conference USA has four teams in the bracket, but all are 10-seeds or lower.

New to the bracket this week: Ole Miss, Iowa State, Texas and UCF.
Leaving us, for now: Stanford, Northern Iowa, Denver and Colorado State, which is the highest rated RPI team left out.



Posted on: January 19, 2012 6:37 pm
 

Where's Cincinnati?

It's a city in the Southwest corner of Ohio, but that's not really what we're talking here.  Bearcat fans are up in arms at the omission of their team from this week's bracket.  They aren't there for a very simple reason -- they don't have much of a case.

First, let's keep in mind that he bracket was posted Wednesday morning, before Cinci won at Connecticut, so that game isn't considered.  Also, remember that the bracket is as if the tournament started then.  I'm not trying to predict what will happen in March.

Bearcat fans point out their second place position in the conference standings.  That's nice, but irrelevant.  Conference standings don't matter at all in March.  They matter even less in mid-January, when only about a third of the conference schedule has been played.

They also mention having beated two or three top 25 teams on the road.  I count one: Georgetown.  It's the only win among their 14 that is over a tournament-quality team.

In fact, the win over Georgetown is pretty much Cincinnati's entire case.

The Bearcats RPI on Wednesday morning was 101.  One Hundred One.  Do you know how bad your schedule and/or losses have to be to have a triple-digit RPI with a 14-4 record?  Only Wyoming had a better record and a worse RPI.

Cincinnati's non-conference schedule ranks 317th.  That is, to be nice, putrid.  And it's going to take more than a win over Georgetown (and UConn, for that matter) to overcome that.  They also have not one, not two, but three home losses, two of which to teams that won't sniff the tournament.  Those are the Bearcats' only conference loss (St. John's) and a loss to a denomination (Presbyterian).  And of course, they also got "zipped up" by Xavier.

So, while that win over Georgetown is nice, the Bearcats have work to do before they erase the black marks on their tournament profile.

By the way - the win over UConn bumped up Cincinnati's RPI to 85.  That's a good start.

Posted on: February 22, 2011 1:10 pm
Edited on: February 22, 2011 3:15 pm
 

Feb. 22 Bracket - Carnage Everywhere

by Jerry Palm

Wow, it was a tough week all over the place in the bracket.   The four top-rated teams in the AP poll lost, although the Kansas loss was on Monday night, so it was already accounted for in the previous bracket here.  By my count, 22 at-large teams seeded 8 or below, or were just on the outside lookng in, also lost.

Poll voters being what they are voted Duke up to No. 1 from 5th.  Despite that, the Blue Devils still don't have a No. 1 seed profile.  Pitt and Ohio State still have the most complete tournament resumes are are the overall top two teams.  After that, it gets a little dicier.

San Diego State had kind of a bad week.  Oh, sure, they won twice, but the team that had been arguably their best win, St. Mary's, went in the tank.  The Gaels lost at 300+ RPI San Diego and followed that by getting drilled at home by Utah State.   The Aztecs still have a sweep of UNLV, which is better than most people give them credit for.

I moved Kansas up to the top line in place of Texas after the Longhorns lost at Nebraska.   Texas has more good wins than any of the other top seed competitiors, but also twice as many losses, and now two of them are to likely non-tournament teams.

Purdue moved up to a second seed after a week in which the Boilers beat two top ten-ranked teams at home.

San Diego St and Purdue point out the dangers, for lack of a better word, of looking at one team's selection or seed prospects in a vacuum.

The Aztecs had a good week, but came out of it with a slightly worse profile because of something a previous opponent had done.  Some teams that were ahead of Purdue last week find themselves behind this week, not necessarily because of something they did, but because of something Purdue did.

People ask me all the time things like, "if my team does this, that and the other, are we in?"  Unless one of those things is win the conference tournament, it's not definite.  You might go out and do what you think is something pretty good, but something else happens out of your control and it turns out not to be good enough.

And then, sometimes things like this happen -- St. John's was a six seed in last week's bracket, beat Pitt over the weekend, and is now a seven.  That's not because of anything the Red Storm did, or anything that other teams around them necessarily did.  It is because I swapped them with UNLV to try to keep all those Big East teams as separate as possible in the bracket.  The committee does that kind of thing too.  In fact, sometimes the committee swaps seeds just to keep a team closer to home.

The Bubble Watch is updated also, so I'll have more about some of those teams there.

See complete Bracketology coverage here.







Posted on: February 15, 2011 2:07 pm
Edited on: February 15, 2011 9:09 pm
 

Feb. 15 Bracket - Movement at the Top

by Jerry Palm

Ohio State's loss at Wisconsin on Saturday and Kansas losing at Kansas State last night has caused a bit of a shakeup at the top of the bracket.   There is very little separating the teams on the top line, and not much separating them from the second line.  Here is a look at how they stand at the moment.

Pittsburgh -- The Panthers have more top 25 RPI wins than anyone (6), and four of those came away from home.  Two were last week, at West Virginia and Villanova, without their leading scorer, Ashton Gibbs.  Oddly, both of their losses have come in Pittsburgh.

Ohio St -- The Buckeyes have just one loss, the one at Wisconsin.  Everyone loses there.  The have six top 50 wins, including blowouts of Purdue and Florida.

Texas -- Leads the Big 12 and had to win at Kansas to do that.  The loss to USC is a real headscratcher, but you could argue nobody has played better the last month and a half.

San Diego State -- The Aztecs also have just one loss, which came at BYU.   They swept UNLV as part of their five top 50 wins and are 13-1 away from home.  Some even higher quality wins would be nice.

Kansas -- Like SDSU, the Jayhawks are in need of higher quality wins.  They have a neutral court win over Arizona, which is overrated (one top 50 win, home UCLA -- yawn), and beat Missouri at home among their six top 50 wins.  Kansas St is the highest rated team they have played on the road, and they got crushed.  The second-highest rated team the Jayhawks played on the road is Michigan, and they needed OT to beat the Wolverines.

BYU -- The Cougars' seven top 50 wins also includes a neutral court win over Arizona and the win over the Aztecs.  They lost to UCLA in Anaheim and at the Pit in New Mexico, where everybody loses.  Except San Diego State.

Duke -- The win over North Carolina last week was their first over a sure tournament team this season.  Their win at Miami on Sunday is their best road win of the year, after losses at St. John's and Florida State.

So, you can see, it's a pretty tight race to the finish among these seven teams.

St. John's continues to play their way up the bracket.  They beat Connecticut at home and won at Cincinnati and moved up a couple spots.  The Bearcats though are sliding, having lost three of four and with still several tough games ahead.

See complete Bracketology coverage here.

Also, the Bubble Page has been updated.

Posted on: February 11, 2011 3:17 pm
Edited on: February 11, 2011 3:29 pm
 

On the Bubble

by Jerry Palm

I hate the term, but The Bubble has become accepted vernacular when it comes to bracket projections.  Those are the teams that can still go either way in or out of the tournament field.  Today, we debut a new page called "Bubble Watch," where I spotlight certain teams on either side of the fence and some others of interest.  It will be updated at least every Friday.  This week, 11 teams are featured.  It does not include every single team on the bubble.  Every team from an 8-seed on down is on the bubble as far as I'm concerned, and of course, there are those not in the bracket for now.

Here are some key games to watch this weekend for our bubbly friends.

The ACC: The league has no fewer than six fencesitters -- Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Maryland, Miami and Virginia Tech.   Every time they take the floor against each other, or against either Duke or North Carolina, that's a key game.

Saturday, Maryland is at BC and UNC goes to Clemson, where the Tigers do occassionaly come up with a win against the Heels.  On Sunday, Duke is in Miami to face the Canes.

In the A-10 on Sunday, Xavier is at Duquesne with first place in the league on the line.  Xavier is looking pretty good for the tournament, but the Dukes might need the conference regular season title to remain an at-large possibility.

Baylor is still trying to recover from a rough start to its season, but a win at Texas on Saturday would heal a lot of those pains.

Two bubblers face off when Old Dominion visits VCU on Saturday hoping to stay in the Colonial race.

Two more go at it in the Big East on Sunday when St. John's goes to Cincinnati.   The Bearcats won the first meeting in NYC.

New Mexico
and Marquette get chances this weekend to prove they are not just home court heroes.  The Lobos are at Colorado State on Saturday, while the Golden Eagles face Georgetown on Sunday.


See complete Bracketology coverage here.

 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com