Today's bracket reflects a switch in the Southern Florida representation in the field.  South Florida is in after beating Louisville, while Miami falls out after losing for the second time this season to NC State.

Northwestern almost got the big win tonight, but its comeback effort against Ohio State fell just short.  As a result, the Cats find themselves in the First Four in the current projection.

Colorado State and Cincinnati crept up a little after big wins.  The Rams knocked off UNLV at home.  The Rams always win at home.  It's away from home that they have problems.

The Bearcats steamrolled Marquette for its sixth top 50 RPI win and seventh against the top 100.  All those wins have come in conference play, where they are 11-6.

Dayton may have put the final nail in its coffin with a loss at Richmond.  Conference mate St. Joe's also hurt themselves with an overtime loss at St. Bonaventure.

by Jerry Palm

The final four games take place today (as opposed to the Final Four games, which take place in three weeks), and there is something at stake in all of them.

Dayton plays Richmond for the A-10 title and a spot in the field.  The Flyers would steal someone's bid, but that some might be Richmond.

Duke and North Carolina are playing to try to improve their seeding.  Duke is hoping to grab that fourth No. 1 seed.  The Tar Heels are looking for just their third top 50 RPI win and first away from home.  That could move them up to a three, but with so few true quality wins and the competition at the top of the bracket, better than that seems out of reach.

An explanation is required for the sites for the 4-seeds in this morning's bracket.  The way the First Four games work is that two are played on Tuesday and two on Wednesday.  That means that at least two of those have to be bracketed to play on Friday.  The way it ended up working out, a Friday site was needed on the 4-line, but it also had to be able to hold an ACC First Four team.  If UNC was in Charlotte, they could meet another ACC team too soon, so Kentucky got that site instead and UNC was put in Tampa.  It's convoluted, but the First Four will occasionally cause strange things to happen.

Florida and Kentucky are also playing for seed.  The Gators could be as high as a two with a win, while Kentucky might have a shot at a 3.

And Ohio State is trying to become the overall No. 1 seed.  That could go to Kansas if Penn State pulls its third upset in a row and takes down the Buckeyes.

See complete Bracketology coverage here.

by Jerry Palm

For the most part, this is the last chance for some teams to make their case to the committee.  There are a few games tomorrow that could be impactful, but most of the action is today.

Conference USA gets it started with Memphis and UTEP.  The Miners have to win to get in.  Memphis may be an at-large with a loss, so this could be a two-bid league if UTEP wins.

In the A-10, Dayton and St. Joes play a semifinal game for the right to try to steal a bid from someone tomorrow.  That bid may get stolen from Richmond if the Spiders don't beat Temple in the other semifinal.

Virginia Tech gets another shot at Duke today.  Nolan Smith may give it a go on his injured toe for the Blue Devils.  The Hokies can definitely get off the bubble with a win.  They might be in anyway.

Clemson begins the day without a top 50 RPI win, but can change that in the other ACC semifinal against North Carolina.

Penn State is in my bracket this morning, but the Nits may not be able to survive a loss to Michigan State today.

The Ivy League Tournament championship is today.  It's like the BCS - a one-game tournament between Harvard and Princeton, being played at Yale.  Neither team has at-large hopes though.

Finally, the Mountain West tournament final between BYU and San Diego State will be important to the seeding of both teams.  The Aztecs aren't out of the question as a one-seed.  BYU probably is due to their play since the injury to Brandon Davies, but they may be able to keep from being dropped too far with a win today.

by Jerry Palm

There has been another change at the top of the bracket this week as the top of the field continues to play its way backwards.  BYU takes over for San Diego State on the top line for now, but may have to win out to keep it.

Of course, other contenders continue to fall away.  Texas once looked like a strong candidate for a top seed, but has lost twice since Friday's bracket.  They blew a 22-point lead at Colorado on Saturday, then Kansas State came back on them at home Monday night (although from not nearly as large a hole).  Combine that with the loss at Nebraska the previous week and it looks like the Longhorns are trying to play the whole middle of the Big 12 into the field.  That's good news for Baylor, who plays them this weekend.

The result is that the Longhorns find themselves as a 3-seed today, while Notre Dame moves up to the second line.  Both the Irish and red-hot Purdue have chances to challenge for top seeds, but probably need to win out and get help.

Meanwhile, Kansas State has won five in a row, including it's three biggest wins of the year, and has played itself right off the bubble.

Virginia Tech also picked up its biggest win so far when it beat Duke on Saturday.  Despite the screaming of the TV commentators that the Hokies are now a lock, that's not true.  They can't go on a three-game losing streak from here and expect to get in.

Arizona had a rough week in LA, losing to both USC and UCLA, and dropping into a tie with the Bruins for first place in the Pac 10.  The Wildcats have done little of substance away from home.  Their only top 50 RPI wins came over UCLA and Washington, both in Tucson.  Poll voters still love them for their gaudy record, but they look like a middle of the bracket team.

I get a lot of question about team's selection or seeding that go something like this "My team is ahead of this other team in the conference standings, so why are they seeded lower?"

The answer is that conference standings (and conference record by itself) are not at all relevant to the selection and seeding process.  Conference standings don't matter in part because so many leagues play unbalanced schedules.  Seriously -- is there anything less meaningful than the Big East standings?  And the other thing about conference performance is that it is only about two-thirds of a team's entire profile, and teams are judged on their entire body of work, not just conference play.

So, I have Old Dominion ahead of George Mason in the bracket because the Monarchs' non-conference performance makes up for a two-game deficit in the Colonial standings.  They have a non-conference wins over Xavier, Richmond, Clemson and Cleveland State.   Mason's only non-conference win of any substance came over Harvard at home.  In fact, Mason's best away-from-home win of the season came at VCU.   ODU beat both Xavier and Clemson on neutral courts.  So, I see a slight overall edge to ODU.

The extreme case of this is Alabama, which is 11-3 in the SEC at the moment and has clinched the West division title, but still isn't close to an at-large bid.  Their non-conference performance was so bad that a gaudy league record hasn't been able to wipe it away.  Of course, it doesn't help that the rest of the West stinks and that accounts for most of the Tide's conference schedule.

I'll have more in the Bubble Watch later today.

See complete Bracketology coverage here.

by Jerry Palm

The first weekly bracket is posted .  You will see it here every Tuesday throughout the season, and a little more often as we get closer to selection Sunday.

Since it is still early January, and conference play has barely begun in most places, several teams have yet to really fully prove themselves.  That means there's still a lot of "what we think we know" as opposed to what's actually on tournament resumes.  Also, RPI numbers are still somewhat sketchy at this time of year, but will get better as we get deeper into the season.  It's not even the halfway point yet.

So, I tend to give the top 20 in the polls a little more weight than I usually do later on when trying to predict what the field will look like.  (the teams ranked below 20 are often just filler and afterthoughts on a lot of ballots).  That is a better represnetation of the "eye test" than the RPI and other measureables at this point of the sesaon.

That's partly why, Kansas is still a number one seed despite not having beaten anyone better than Arizona and only two teams in the bracket (UCLA and Memphis).  Despite that, the Jayhawks are second in the RPI because they have avoided playing very bad teams.

The same is not true of Cincinnati, which I detailed in an earlier post .  I have them as a 8-seed, even though the Bearcats crawled into the rankings this week.  Voters are begrudginly getting on board, but we'll find out if Cincinnati is for real soon enough.  After hosting arch-rival Xavier on Thursday, they play six of eight on the road, and five of those six are against current RPI top 20 teams.

Purdue doesn't seem to have the resume or accomplishment befitting a team ranked 11th in the polls.  The Boilers are 13-1, with the one loss coming to Richmond.  Like Kansas, Purdue has successfully avoided the truly horrible opponents, and thus have a lofty RPI of 11.  However, the Boilers have yet to beat an RPI top 50 team and their best win is probably the one at Virginia Tech.

The one team in the rankings that defies explanation though is Memphis.  The Tigers do not have any bad losses (Georgetown, Kansas), but only one win against a team in the RPI top 100 (Miami by 4 at home).  In fact, all of their wins have come at home except the one against LSU in Tupelo, MS.

Memphis is just one of about a dozen teams that really have no business being in this or any bracket, but are in this one anyway because we have to fill a 68-team field.  You might think that your team deserves to be in ahead of one of the those I have in this bracket instead.  If you want to split those ratty hairs, go ahead, but I guarantee you your team does not deserve to be in either.