Tag:Mountain West
Posted on: December 21, 2011 12:22 am
Edited on: December 21, 2011 12:23 am
 

Mountain West/Big East behind the numbers

The Mountain West has applied for an exemption that would allow it to become an AQ conference for the next two seasons.  They base that in part on their performance over the last four years, and in part because of an exemption granted to the Big East in the past.  So let's look at the numbers.

The league is measure in three categories: highest rated team, average computer ranking of all teams, and a score based on teams in the top 25.  It is measured over a four year period, based on this year's membership.  Therefore, Utah and BYU do not count, but TCU and Boise State do, even though Boise was in the WAC the last three years.

The reason the MWC didn't qualify for AQ status outright and has to apply for an exemption is that the league is good at the top, but has no depth.  The league does well in the two categories that measure top of the league performance.  It is fifth in the highest rated team category, and has a score of 60.2% in the top 25 category (only 33% was required to apply for exemption).

In the category that measures all teams, the league is a distant seventh, with an average computer ranking of 61.3.  The Big East is sixth at 50.2.

The problem is, the top two MWC teams in the rankings the last four years have been TCU and Boise State.  Without them, the numbers aren't nearly as good, and both teams are leaving.  TCU is already gone.  The Broncos have just one more year.  San Diego State is also leaving at the same time as Boise State.  Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii will join.

Without TCU and Boise State, the MWC would be the ninth rated league in the highest rated team category, an even more distant seventh in the average computer category (67.1) and would score only 6.9% in the top 25 category.  Among the new lineup, only Nevada (15th) and Hawaii (24th) finished in the top 25 of any season in the last four years, both in 2010.

Those are numbers the presidents can't ignore, and the reason why the league won't get its exemption.

The Mountain West document states that the Big East was granted an exemption after the 2007 season to retain its AQ status.  While I don't doubt that, I have been told repeated by Bill Hancock that there is no provision for removing AQ status from a league, which is why the Big East's status isn't in doubt for the next two years, so I am confused as to why such an exemption would have been necessary in 2008.  In any event, the only category the Big East fell short in was the top 25 percentage, where it scored 49.11%, just below the 50% requirement.  The MWC, even with it's current membership, cannot say is just barely missed in the category in which it failed to meet the standard.

The new Bigger East, which along with the Mountain West schools, has added Houston, SMU and UCF from Conference USA, is doing ok for the first two years of the cycle that the new members will count for, which is the 2010-13 seasons.  The league is fifth so far in the high ranking category and a very comfortable sixth in the average computer rankings.  They only score 29% in the top 25 category, but only three leagues, the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 are doing better than 50% so far.

Of course, if this turns out to be true, all this will be moot.

Posted on: October 15, 2011 12:20 pm
Edited on: October 15, 2011 12:33 pm
 

Mountain West, C-USA Merger not BCS-Worthy

The Mountan West and Conference USA announced a long-planned, football-only merger yesterday that has as one of its goals acquiring an automatic BCS berth for its champion.

I cannot imagine any chance of that happening.

The Mountain West, on its own, has been hoping to meet the three-part qualification standard for becoming an AQ conference for the 2012 and 2013 seasons.  It looks like that will fall short, although the league should have an opportunity to appeal to the BCS presidential oversight committee.  I can't see any non-political reason for that appeal to be granted.

The qualification standard has three parts and is based on a four-year cycle that ends with the current season.  The parts are the highest ranked team in the league, the average BCS computer rankings of all the teams in the league, and the number of top 25 teams in the league.

If a non-AQ conference finishes the four-year cycle in the top six conferences in the first two categories, it becomes AQ. If it finishes in the top five in one of the two, seventh in the other, and meets a minimum standard in the third category, the league can appeal to the POC.  That's where the MWC stands entering this season.

The Mountain West is in the top five in the highest ranked team category and a distant seventh (yes, well behind the Big East) in the second category.  It is not mathematically possible for the MWC to finish sixth, and it hasn't been a particularly good year for the league anyway.

Conference USA is in a battle for 8th place in this list with the WAC, and both are well behind the MWC in all three categories, and that's the problem for this association's attempt to get an AQ spot in the BCS.  Adding C-USA dilutes the Mountain West.  

That is not even taking into consideration that both leagues are under attack from the Big East, which is looking to grow its membership.

In a semi-related note, the Big East's AQ status is not in doubt for at least two more years, and maybe longer, if it can get its membership numbers up and stabilized.  There is no formal process for removing AQ status from a conference like there is for adding it.  That doesn't mean the BCS poobahs can't create a process or strip a league of its AQ status without one, but it will be at least the 2014 season before that would happen.

In an effort to prevent that, the Big East will invite Air Force, Boise St (MWC), UCF (C-USA) and Navy to join its ranks next week, Brett McMurphy posted yesterday.  Other reports say that SMU and Houston (C-USA) will recieve invites as well.  That doesn't mean those invites will be accepted.

There may be other, perfectly good reasons for these two leagues to work together like this (TV, scheduling, etc), but getting a BCS berth for its champion looks like a pipe dream.



Posted on: January 25, 2011 5:01 pm
 

Video: Breaking down the bracket (Jan. 25)

by Jerry Palm

Getting grilled about the Big East, Mountain West, Pac 10, Colonial, Gonzaga and Butler .




Posted on: January 16, 2011 1:51 pm
Edited on: January 16, 2011 1:55 pm
 

WAC Automaic Bid Will Survive

by Jerry Palm

New NCAA legislation that passed this week will ensure that the WAC will retain its automatic bid to the NCAA tournament in basketball.  It was in danger of being stripped after the many defections from the WAC to the Mountain West because of a lack of "continuity of membership."  The new rules that were passed this week relax those restrictions.  A conference must now have at least seven active members that sponsor men's basketball, as well as six that sponsor at least five other men's sports.

The WAC loses Boise State to the Mountain West after this season, and Nevada, Fresno State and Hawaii will depart after the 2011-12 season.  The league has already announced the addition of Texas State, Texas-San Antonio and Denver (non-football member) for the 2012-13 season, giving it seven members, assuming nobody else defects.

That's not a given, which is why commissioner Karl Benson isn't standing pat.  The San Antonio Express-News reported this week that the league was likely to add more teams from a list of candidates that includes Cal-Davis, Cal Poly, Cal St Bakersfield, Lamar, Louisiana-Lafayette, Portland State, Sam Houston State, Seattle and Utah Valley State.  Only UL-Lafayette currently plays Division I-A football.



Category: NCAAB
Posted on: January 8, 2011 1:33 pm
 

Duke and the 11 Dwarves

by Jerry Palm

That's what the ACC looks like this year.  The gap between the Blue Devils and the other teams is as pronounced as I've ever seen in any major conference, and this is one of the worst year's ever for the ACC.

How bad is it?  Even the Mountain West ranks ahead of the ACC.  In the previous 18 years, the ACC has not been a top three league only once (2000 -- 7th).

The ACC is the sixth-rated league right now, two spots behind the Mountain West.  Even though the Mountain West is having a great year, that has got to have the blue bloods in ACC country hot under the collar.  And while teams get bids, not conferences, that fact, combined with the pile of mediocrity behind Duke, leads me to believe the ACC may not be very well represented in the even-bigger NCAA tournament this March.  Even five bids total may be optimistic.

North Carolina would appear to be in the best shape for a bid.  The Tar Heels have a win over Kentucky and no bad losses so far.

Miami is also in the top 30 of the RPI, but has a 16-point loss at Rutgers and has yet to be at sure tournament team.

Boston College is the only other league team currently in the top 50 of the RPI, but has two home losses to Ivy League teams. The Texas A&M win is nice though.

Beyond that, only outstanding league play has a chance to salvage a bid for anyone else.  Not merely good.  Outstanding.

 
 
 
 
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