Today's bracket is up, and for the first time in a couple weeks, there is a change at the top. Baylor is gone after another blowout loss to Kansas. Ohio State has moved up to take the Bears' place.
Duke's win over North Carolina has the Blue Devils making a push for the top line as well, but home losses to Florida State and Miami are still too much to overcome.
Murray State suffered its first loss of the season last night at home to Tennessee State. That dropped them down to a five-seed in today's bracket. Every Racers' loss, with the possible exception of one to St. Mary's, will have an increasing, negative effect on their seed. It might only take three or four bad losses, including one in the Ohio Valley tournament, of course, to knock them out of the field altogether.
I think the best comparison to a past team right now is the 1998 Princeton team that went 25-1. The fifth-seeded Tigers' only loss that year was to No. 1 North Carolina, so obviously, that is a much better loss than Murray's. However Princeton beat only one top 50 RPI team that season, and nobody that made the tournament.
There is also a comparisons being made to the 2006 George Washington team that finished 26-2 and was an 8-seed, but their seed suffered because of an injury to star Pops Mensah-Bonsu.
The teams that were either a three or four seed in Tuesday's bracket went 1-5 since then. Michigan State was the only winner, while Georgetown, Florida, Murray State, Creighton and St. Mary's all lost.
Florida State took a dive after losing at Boston College, dropping down to a 9-seed. The Seminoles had been playing much better lately, but a third bad loss really hurts their tournament profile.
Cal replaces Washington again at the leader of the Pac 12, which still shows only one bid at the moment. The Huskies got drilled at Oregon last night.
And finally, a reminder of how I make those conference leader decisions for the bracket. The conference leader is designated as the team with the fewest conference losses. Ties are broken by RPI. As a Northwest Indiana guy, I'm as excited as anyone that Valparaiso beat Cleveland State last night to take a half-game lead on the Vikings in the Horizon League. However, CSU still has a better RPI, so the Vikes are still listed as the leader and in the bracket. I do it this way because it's the most likely way to get each league's best team into the projection. Once conference tournament seeding is decided, I go with the top seed remaining.